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California Is Set to Lose a Home Seat. What Now?

“You’ll know that California has really crossed a line when house costs begin falling,” Christopher Thornberg, founding associate of Beacon Economics, a consulting agency in Los Angeles, informed me late final yr.

And, properly, house costs have completed the other.

Extra just lately — and significantly in the course of the Trump administration — immigration slowed considerably. Immigration represented between 0.4 and 0.5 p.c of California’s annual inhabitants improve by means of the primary half of the last decade, H.D. Palmer, a spokesman for the state’s Division of Finance, informed Shawn. However beginning in 2017, when President Donald J. Trump took workplace, that started to say no, to lower than 0.1 p.c final yr.

If California remains to be rising, why is it going to lose a congressional seat?

As Eric McGhee, a political participation knowledgeable with the Public Coverage Institute of California, defined early final yr: “It’s a zero-sum sport.”

Though for a lot of American historical past, seats have been added freely to the Home of Representatives, in 1911, the quantity was capped at 435.

Which implies that your state can develop and nonetheless lose illustration, if it doesn’t develop sufficient relative to different states.

In 2011, California’s variety of representatives stayed flat for the primary time, at 53. And whereas there have been issues about participation within the census final yr for a number of causes, demographers have been already forecasting that the state might lose a seat.

What occurs subsequent?

Broadly, the shifts will redistribute political energy throughout the nation — though it stays to be seen what that may appear to be.

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