As for the place New York will cut back its illustration, “the idea is the loss can be upstate someplace,” mentioned Jack McEnany, a former state assemblyman who oversaw the redistricting efforts a decade in the past.
There are a number of locations the place Democrats might search to get rid of a Republican-held seat upstate.
Consultant Tom Reed, a Republican who represents the Southern Tier, together with Jamestown and Corning, lately introduced that he wouldn’t search re-election in 2022 after he was accused of groping a former lobbyist. His district might be mixed with that of neighboring Consultant Chris Jacobs, who represents the area outdoors Buffalo and who solely took workplace final 12 months.
Democrats might additionally mix the seats held by Consultant Elise Stefanik, who represents a lot of the Adirondacks and is a prime Republican fund-raiser now contemplating a run for governor, and Consultant Claudia Tenney, who was narrowly re-elected to Congress final 12 months after shedding her seat in 2018. Ms. Tenney’s Central New York district reaches from the Pennsylvania border to Lake Ontario.
A prime Democratic goal is Consultant John Katko, a Republican who represents Syracuse and who managed to carry onto his seat though Democrats have carried the district in current presidential elections. Democratic mapmakers would virtually certainly tip the district to be extra favorable to the social gathering.
“They’re going to attempt to intestine these districts throughout the state,” mentioned Mr. Langworthy, the G.O.P. chairman, who predicted that Republicans would wind up spending closely on authorized charges battling Democratic plans within the courts. “Mapmakers will be very vicious.”
However Democratic congressional incumbents are additionally usually cautious of ceding an excessive amount of of the territory they already characterize, making the drawing of maps a politically delicate affair.
One other first-term Republican, Consultant Nicole Malliotakis, represents Staten Island and a slice of the extra conservative elements of South Brooklyn. However Democrats might add extra overwhelmingly Democratic elements of Brooklyn to her seat, making it extra aggressive.